2026年1月6日

ウォール街の8週連続勝利後、アジア株は上昇

cscambodia511 mins

月曜のアジア株は、ウォール街が8連勝の週を静かな幕切れで終えた後、インフレ率が低下し、景気が上向く可能性を示す報道を受けて、ほぼ上昇した。

東京の日経平均は0.3％高の33,254.03、台湾のTaiexは0.1％上昇した。バンコクのSETは横ばいだった。上海総合指数は0.1％高の2,918.93だった。
クリスマス休暇のため、域内外のほとんどの市場が休場となった。
中国の規制当局は100以上のオンライン・ゲームの認可を発表し、金曜日に発表されたガイドライン草案によってテンセントやネティースといった大手ゲーム・メーカーの株価が急落した後、業界への支援を表明する声明を発表した。

金曜のS&P500種株価指数は0.2％上昇し、約2年前に記録した4,754.63を1％弱下回った。ダウは0.1％未満の下落で37,385.97ドル、ナスダックは0.2％上昇で14,992.97ドルだった。

週間8連騰で、S&P500種株価指数は2017年以来最長の連騰中である。

ウォール街の注目は、金曜日に発表された一連の経済指標に集中した。

連邦準備制度理事会が好んで使用するインフレ指標はエコノミストの予想以上に鈍化し、11月は前月の2.9％から2.6％に低下した。11月のインフレ率は前月の2.9％から2.6％に低下した。

米消費者の支出は予想外に増加した。これは、主に個人消費に牽引される経済の成長にとって良い兆候であるが、同時に、インフレに対する根本的な圧力が残っていることを示す可能性もある。
金曜日に発表された他の報告によると、11月の耐久消費財の受注は予想以上に増加し、新築住宅販売は予想外に弱まり、米消費者のセンチメントは改善した。

米連邦準備制度理事会は綱渡りをしている。高金利を通じてインフレを抑制するほど景気を減速させるが、景気後退に陥るほどには減速させないようにしている。予想以上に景気が強まれば、そのバランスを取るのが難しくなるかもしれない。

10年物国債利回りは月曜未明には3.90％と、金曜深夜とほぼ同水準となった。利回りが5％を超え、株式市場に痛烈な下落圧力をかけていた10月と比べれば、まだ楽な方だ。

利回りの低下は、株式市場が10月下旬以降約15％上昇した主な理由である。利回りは借り入れを促すことで景気を押し上げるだけでなく、金融システムへの圧力を緩和し、投資価格を上昇させる。米連邦準備制度理事会が2024年まで金利を引き下げられるほどインフレが冷え込んでいるとの期待から、米連邦準備制度理事会は緩和を続けている。

CMEグループのデータによると、トレーダーは連邦準備制度理事会が来年末までに主要金利を少なくとも1.50％ポイント引き下げることに賭けている。フェデラル・ファンド・レートは現在5.25％から5.50％のレンジ内にあり、過去20年以上で最も高い水準にある。

為替市場では、米ドルは142.49円から142.41円まで下落した。ユーロは1.1019ドルから1.1010ドルに下落した。

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