2026年2月8日

カンボジアの成長にはセクター内多角化が必須

cscambodia3401 mins

アジア開発銀行の元役員であり、カンボジアを代表するエコノミストは、カンボジアが今後数年間成長するためには、より大きなセクター内多角化が必要であるとの見解を示した。

ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Instituteのシニアフェローであるジャヤント・メノン博士は、「同研究所のウェブサイトに掲載された研究ベースの意見書の中で、2030年までに上位中所得国に、2050年までに高所得国になるという目標を達成するためには、カンボジアは持続可能で弾力性のある、より包括的な成長を達成するために様々な制約に対処しなければならない」と述べた。

カンボジアの成長モデルは、正規・非正規の両部門において、適正な報酬を受けられる持続可能な雇用を創出するだけでなく、それらに牽引されるべきであると指摘した。

「カンボジアは構造転換の新たな段階を必要としている。これまでのところ、カンボジア経済の限られた多様化は、成長の急速なペースに影響を及ぼしていないが、その質と包摂性にのみ影響を及ぼしている。カンボジアの平均成長率は、先進国市場への特恵貿易アクセス、アンコールワットを中心とした観光、インフラや不動産への大規模な資本流入や援助によって、パンデミック前の10年間は7％を超えていた。」
「後発開発途上国からの脱却が見込まれるこの10年、カンボジアは貿易優遇措置や援助の流れが弱まるにつれ、自らの成功の犠牲者となるだろう。カンボジアは新たな成長の原動力を追求する必要があり、そのためには新しいタイプの多角化が必要となる。」

カンボジア経済の権威は、農業から工業やサービス業への農村と都市の移動を伴う構造転換の初期段階が限界に達している可能性を指摘した。「より高価値の製品やサービスを生産する部門への水平シフトは、生産性の一過性の上昇をもたらし、所得と生活水準を向上させたが、この上昇は持続可能なものではない。」

「カンボジアの生産性を将来的に向上させるには、セクター内の多様化が必要です。これは、部門内でより付加価値の高い製品や活動への垂直的なシフトを意味する。このような多角化は、バリューチェーンへの移行と呼ばれることもある。製造業では、グローバル・サプライ・チェーンへの参加拡大が含まれます」。

カンボジア開発資源研究所の研究顧問でもあるメノン博士は、カンボジアがより包括的な成長のためにセクター内の多角化を進めるためには、2つの制約に対処する必要があると強調した。「それは、限られた人的資本と高い事業コストです。新しいタイプの成長を継続させるためには、回復力と持続可能性を制限するもう1つの制約に対処しなければならない。カンボジア人は、3つのタイプの制約すべてに対処するための政策改革と、公共投資だけでなく民間投資も必要としている。」
彼は、カンボジアはスキルのミスマッチを避けるために、民間部門と緊密に協力してスキル開発とトレーニングに投資する必要があると指摘した。また、その他の懸念事項についても次のように述べた「企業にとって、カンボジアでビジネスを行うための高いコストは、限られた物理的・物流的インフラ、高価なエネルギーと金融に起因している。インフラの不足が蔓延しているため、輸送部門や経済全体への投資を優先する必要がある。」

「電気代が高いため、労働集約的な組立作業から、付加価値は高いがエネルギー集約的な電子機器や自動車のサプライチェーンにおける部品やコンポーネントの生産への垂直的なアップグレードが制限されている。カンボジアは再生可能エネルギーとエネルギー効率に投資し、発電におけるコストとディーゼルや重油への依存を減らす必要がある。」

「特に小規模農家や零細・中小企業にとっては、高い金融コストが貧困を永続させている。正式な金融手段へのアクセスが限られていることは、コストと密接な関係がある。しかし、フィンテックやブロックチェーン技術を含むデジタル・イノベーションの可能性は、カンボジアの金融セクターにとって、金融包摂を強化する大きなチャンスとなる。」

先週開催された「Cambodia Outlook Conference 2023」の傍らでクメール・タイムズの質問を受けたメノン博士は、「カンボジアは2030年までに高中所得国の地位を獲得するという目標に邁進する一方で、質的成長に焦点を当てなければならないと述べ、新興国の成長数に関しては質と量のトレードオフが最も重要である」と付け加えた。
メノン博士は、厳しい経済状況にもかかわらず所得水準を維持することがいかに重要かを説明するために、インドネシアとスリランカの事例を取り上げた。「インドネシアは現在、中所得国の上位に位置するが、依然として貧困ライン以下で暮らす人口が相当数いる。スリランカは、かつて高中間所得を達成することに成功しましたが、経済不況のあおりを受け、現在は低中間所得に後退しています。」
「この2つの国は、一人当たりのGDPが特定の数値に達することだけが重要なのではなく、それが完全に包括的で持続可能なものでなければならないことを教えてくれる。」

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