2026年2月8日

アジア開発銀行、アジアの途上国経済見通しを4.9％に上方修正

cscambodia281 mins

アジア開発銀行は、中華人民共和国とインドの堅調な内需が予想を上回る成長を牽引したことを受け、アジア太平洋地域の途上国経済に関する予測を引き上げた。
本日発表されたアジア開発見通し2023年12月号によると、アジア太平洋地域の今年の経済成長率は4.9％となり、9月の前回見通し4.7％を上回ると予想されている。来年の見通しは4.8％に据え置かれている。

中国経済は、家計消費と公共投資が第3四半期の成長を押し上げたことから、前回予想の4.9％から今年は5.2％拡大すると予測される。インドの成長見通しは、7-9月期が工業の2桁成長に牽引され、予想を上回るペースで拡大したことを受け、6.3％から6.7％に引き上げられた。

中国とインドの上方修正は、製造業の不振による東南アジアの下方修正を補って余りある。

アジア開発銀行チーフ・エコノミストのアルバート・パークは、「発展途上アジアは、厳しい世界環境にもかかわらず、力強い成長を続けている。」「アジア地域のインフレも徐々に抑制されつつある。それでも、世界的な金利上昇からエルニーニョのような気候変動まで、リスクは残っている。アジア太平洋地域の各国政府は、自国経済が回復力を持ち、成長が持続可能であるよう、引き続き警戒する必要があります。」

アジア開発見通しの2023年12月発表によると、アジア太平洋地域の今年のインフレ見通しは、従来の3.6%から3.5%に引き下げられた。来年については、インフレ率は3.6％に上昇すると予想される。

今年の東南アジアの成長見通しは、製造業の輸出需要が弱い中、4.6％から4.3％に引き下げられた。コーカサスと中央アジアの経済見通しは若干引き上げられたが、太平洋地域の経済見通しは据え置かれた。

見通しに対するリスクとしては、米国をはじめとする先進国の金利上昇が続き、域内の脆弱な経済、特に債務残高の多い経済の金融不安を助長する可能性がある。また、エルニーニョ現象やロシアのウクライナ侵攻に起因する供給途絶の可能性も、特に食料とエネルギーに関するインフレを再燃させる可能性がある。

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